Scores of war games carried out by the United States and its allies in the wake of Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine make it clear that Putin would probably use a nuclear weapon if he concludes . But as the conflict continues and Russian frustrations grow over their failure to rapidly collapse Ukrainian resistance, one can expect the Russians to revert to type and start employing their overwhelming superiority in artillery and airpower much more indiscriminately. When @BryanAlexander is futuring about you, youd better start futuring yer own dang self! In the wargame, the Ukraine team screened the bottleneck to the north of the Crimean Peninsula but could not contain a powerful Russian attack that pushed through and advanced on Kherson. The video is sped up, obviously, and the invasion clearly would not happen as quickly as in the video. The exercise was called the NATO-Russia War of 2019. Thus, the Russian players primary focus, during the first few days of the campaign, was aimed at gaining freedom of maneuver in the skies air dominance along with destroying Ukraines coastal defense systems. Russia was preparing to do precisely that when the wargame ended. Another difference was in the impact of the Russian air and missile campaign. Editor's note: Don't miss our comprehensive guide to Russia's war against Ukraine . First, the Russians have pushed harder out of Belarus to the west of the Dneiper north of Kyiv to strike the city from the rear. Likewise, Russia carried out its own strategic nuclear drills just a matter of days before invading Ukraine. "As far as one can tell, this is the most serious crisis with a potential nuclear dimension involving Russia and the United States/NATO since the end of the Cold War, even if the risk of a nuclear war is still considered 'small'as many analysts would argue," Alex Glaser, one the creators of Plan A, told Newsweek. By Olena Harmash KYIV (Reuters) - When Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, the shelves of the Novus supermarket chain in Kyiv quickly emptied as its . In the wargame, this constraint on fires was deliberate, based upon a strategy to compel a rapid Ukrainian surrender. "And if we arent careful," Kazianis wrote in a recent article, "what happened in a simulation could happen if aNATO-Russia warerupts over Ukraine.". Sun 13 Mar 2022 08.46 EDT Last modified on Sun 13 Mar 2022 10.42 EDT. In real life, the Ukrainians appear to have opted to do as our after-action analysis tells us was the best course of action, and Kharkiv continues to hold out against increasingly ferocious Russian assaults. VAT included in all prices where applicable. At least six Ukrainian battalions were overrun, and the remainder endured serious losses to aerial interdiction en route to the Dnieper. NATO carries out its own annual nuclear exercises, the most recent codenamed Steadfast Noon. In the actual conflict, there are recent reports of Ukrainian units moving off these lines suffering large losses, as the wargame predicted. ADVERTISEMENT. It may turn out the Russian advance was slowed due to political directives, but, at the moment, many observers can fairly attribute much of what is being reported from the battlefield to general Russian incompetence. At present, the Russians appear to possess air superiority, but the reported 30+ sorties the Ukrainians are launching daily have denied the Russians the level of air dominance that they achieved in the wargame. Long-term strategic competitions with China and Russia are the principal priorities for the Department, and require both increased and sustained investment, because of the magnitude of the threats they pose to U.S. security and prosperity today, and the potential for thosethreats to increase in the future, the strategy explains. Anyway, the scenario is relitively simple, but did take some time to make. This is in contrast with nearly every expert and pundit on the airwaves, who are expressing astonishment at how this conflict is unfolding. The scenario shown in the piece is a plausible one based on the available evidence. A Foreign Affairs article offers a range of outcomes following Russian success in Ukraine. The U.S. National Defense Strategy, which was released by the DoD last year, cites the restoration of Americas competitive edge by blocking global rivals Russia and China from challenging the U.S. and our allies, as one its key goals. Over the holidays, stuck at home sick so just fell into not getting dressed. Also, as of yet, the Russians have not forced the Dnieper in the south, and the forces in the east, pushing forward north of Kharkiv, are still some distances from the Dnieper crossings. We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you've consented to and to improve our understanding of you. Russian missiles could reach the UK within 20 minutes. To combat these threats, U.S. forces could ramp up their deployment of so-called standoff missiles that can be fired from large distances, such as cruise missiles, according to Ochmanek, along with highly robust reconnaissance systems and jam-resistant communications. (U.S. Army photo by: Sgt Caitlyn Byrne, 10th Press Camp Headquarters). A simulation shows how a nuclear war between Russia and NATO could potentially play out in a horrific scenario that would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours . A scenario is ant object to think through, while a simulation gives users ways to intervene in the problem. Josh Calder created another infographic, this time of what might result from the war. Below are ten infographics that break down the history, politics and economics of the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Secondary targets were Ukraines dozens of BUK (SA-17) systems. Again, this is almost precisely what we are seeing on the ground in Ukraine on the wars fifth day. "Once the nuclear threshold is crossed, it may be very difficult to prevent escalation to an all-out nuclear war, i.e., escalating from single use, to a tactical nuclear war in Europe, to a counterforce attack, and ultimately to a countervalue attacktargeting cities and economic centers with the aim of inhibiting the other side's recovery," Glaser said. Both of these actions were, however, discussed by the players in the wargame. STRATFOR created several scenarios describing different Russian invasion strategies: The reality looks most like Hold East Ukraine. Civilians flee embattled Bakhmut as Ukrainian pullout looms, Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 374, Biden, Scholz pledge to punish Russia over Ukraine war, Wagner chief urges Ukraines Zelenskyy to abandon Bakhmut, The Wagner Group explained | Start Here, Russias Andrey Kelin: Ukraine invasion can be called civil war, Biden, Scholz praise Western cooperation on Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 373, Russia envoy denies atrocities, blames West for Ukraines misery, US arrests two for allegedly exporting aviation tech to Russia, Indias G20 meeting ends without consensus on Russia-Ukraine war, Russia accuses Ukraine of cross-border attack in Bryansk, Blinken, Lavrov talk at G20 meeting as US-Russia tensions soar, Russias Generation Z: Some are more Z than others, Al Jazeera Centre for Public Liberties & Human Rights. Famous and foundational think tank RAND gamed a Russian attack on the Baltic nations. As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 374th day, we take a look at the main developments. To view reviews within a date range, please click and drag a selection on a graph above or click on a specific bar. As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 373rd day, we take a look at the main developments. In one a Russian invasion of Ukraine develops into war with NATO, and Moscows forces are ultimately defeated. The livestream of a videogame superimposed with a banner that reads "Breaking News" and "Russia vs Ukraine war start (sic)" has triggered confusion online. Consequently, throughout the wargame, these headquarters remained functional and effective, as the Russians focused much of their available long-range strikes on gaining air dominance. War in Petropol . Blue denotes U.S. forces in the simulations. Bandera is a matrix game, which is a kind of blend of tabletop and role-playing games. He continued: There was a time when they simulated bombing runs on Denmark or coming down the Baltic Sea. Despite Russia's continued disastrous handling of its war of choice in Ukraine, the conflict's . Putin was warned he could lose Chinese support if he goes nuclear. It is estimated that there would be more than 90 million people dead and injured within the first few hours of the conflict. This defaults to your Review Score Setting. Eastern Front Military War Simulator . Kyiv, Ukraine. According to Glaser, a global thermonuclear war on this scale could certainly be considered a "worst-case scenario", although the title of the video hints at the fact that the sequence of events shown is simply part of the standard playbook. The selected countries for comparison, Russia and Ukraine, are displayed below in side-by-side format.The Primary selection is displayed in Blue while the Secondary selection is displayed in Red.Go back to compare two other military powers. This ends up being the last straw for NATO, which then decides direct intervention in Ukraine is necessary to push back against Russian aggression, Kazianis wrote. In the east, the Russians were starting to encircle Kharkiv and the 8th Combined Arms Army was emerging from the Donetsk area to attack towards Melitopol and the Dnieper River. You can use this widget-maker to generate a bit of HTML that can be embedded in your website to easily allow customers to purchase this game on Steam. This stands in stark contrast to what Russia has achieved in its actual operations. Kramatorsk, Ukraine CNN . But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members . In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population sizein an attempt to inhibit the potential for recovery. Looking for Matt, a longshoreman in Delta. Russias military doctrine has a de-escalation policy: its response to a large-scale conventional attack would be met with a limited nuclear strike. The more well-equipped and modernized units, he said, have moved into the area close to two breakaway provinces in Ukraine's east, where Russia instigated a separatist war in 2014 that continues . The map above shows the prewar garrison positions of Ukraines land forces. Research organization RAND has run dozens of wargames simulating major conflict scenarios in what it describes as Russia and Chinas backyards. The wargames suggest that the U.S. forces in those locations would get attacked by a vast array of both conventional and cyber weapons. Local children play in front of a church damaged during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Kolychivka, Ukraine, April 27, 2022. An excellent case can be made that the Russians made similar calculations at the start of the current war. Have an amazing day!Music I May Have Used In The VideoFredji - Happy Life Before its weapon systems are destroyed, Russia fires missiles launched from silos, road-mobile vehicles, and submarines. One of us ran the wargame while the others played the Ukrainian and . For a sustained investment of an additional $8 billion a year between 2020 and 2030, the U.S. Air Force could buy the kit needed to make a difference, he said, noting that similar sums would be required for the Army and Navy. . The idea is that the threat of a nuclear strike would force any opponent, in this case NATO, to return to the status quo. The simulation's scenario . In another Russia successfully occupies Ukraine and the Baltic states, dealing NATO a major defeat. Enter up to 375 characters to add a description to your widget: Copy and paste the HTML below into your website to make the above widget appear. There is a lot to compare here - attack aircraft, armored vehicles, surface-to-air missiles - but in general, Russia simply has more of everything. New video: https://youtu.be/gtC8T_iernk [Afghanistan] Subscribe and turn on notifications to stay updated with new uploads!Military simulationFollow us:ht. This video is a war simulation between Ukraine and Russia.This video was not made to offend anyone! I'm a huge history/geography fan, so if you're interested in those things aswell, this channel may be perfect for you! Thank you for your patience as we work towards bringing this back. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary group, says the city in Donetsk is almost completely surrounded. Only in the south have we seen the Russians making the kind of rapid advances that were expected to take place throughout Ukraine. - Need more user reviews to generate a score, Espaol - Latinoamrica (Spanish - Latin America). So, yeah, that is pretty standard both for political reasons to signal and also to actually prepare for that situation if it did happen.. Mark Esper served as US Secretary of Defence from July 2019 until November 2020. James Lacey, Ph.D., holds the Horner Chair of War Studies at Marine Corps University. There were likely some residual survivors, but Ukraines ability to operate at the squadron level was neutralized. The resulting immediate fatalities and casualties that would occur in each phase of the conflict are determined using data from NUKEMAP. This led to a major engagement about 40 kilometers northwest of Kharkiv against the Russian 27th Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Photos; Timeline; . By JAMEY KEATEN February 27, 2023. | Rob Reynolds, Two figures for generative AI: the calculator and the mad scientists assistant, Another queen sacrifice might be in the works, this time in Virginia. 100% 0. Today's video presents a war simulation, which maps out a war between Russia and Ukraine. You are really sick sociopaths to play Gods and engineer futures. Simulations can also shed light on difficult and emergent decisions, as well as surprising us as the future often can. Air Marshal Edward Stringer, former head of RAF intelligence, this week said a conflict involving the use of nuclear weapons will be weighing on the minds of those making difficult calculations at the moment. Recalling the experience in an article on The Federalist, an online publication, the defence expert the mock-up was conducted by a group of past and present senior U.S. government officials from both sides of the aisle. I think this is at the small unit scale, but havent played it. Nesterivka, Ukraine. Players take up the roles of Russia, the Ukrainian government, Ukrainian Separatists, the USA, and the European Union. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. The defenses north of Kyiv had not broken and if supported they may have held for a considerable period. Even prior to this year, Russia and the United States had been abandoning long-standing nuclear arms control treaties, commenced the development of new kinds of nuclear weapons, and expanded the range of circumstances in which these weapons might be used. When the game ended, the Russians were poised to strike in one or more of three directions west to Odessa, east to envelop the Ukrainians retreat out of the defensive lines along the separatist regions, or north to dislocate the Ukraines defense of the Dnieper line. Ukraines ability to score some early wins and demonstrate incredible acts of courage from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on down have generated an inspired defense, similar to Ukraines course in the wargame. At the same time, the Ukrainian team hoped to make Kharkiv a second Stalingrad, which would suck ever-increasing numbers of Russian forces into a bloody attritional fight. One wonders if the Russian failure to employ their massive fires capacity to deliberately shape the battlefield over an extended period before the ground advance began will be marked by historians as a blunder. As the wargame ended, the Ukrainians were under pressure in the north, with Russian forces closing in on the eastern approaches to Kyiv and the Dnieper River, while also beginning to cross the border from Belarus into the northwest through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Putin, and those advisers who still have his ear, may have been convinced many Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators and the march to Kyiv would be an easy one. The ripple effects of Russia's war in Ukraine continue to change the world. Cyber activity will ramp up more before a physical war since it is being used as a tool in an attempt to disrupt and weaken countries. In terms of computer wargames, Operational Art of War IV apparently has some levels displaying Russian and Ukrainian armies at war. Based on the wargames, a clash with Russia in the Baltic states would result in the rapid defeat of U.S. forces and their allies, Ochmanek told Fox News. The wargame also generated substantial discussion of what to do with the five brigades Ukraine has in the western part of the country. Ex-French soldier who witnessed the Bucha war crimes committed against civilians by the Armed Forces of Ukraine survives assassination attempt by Kiev, requests asylum in Russia "Those 87K armed IRS agents are needed to fight the black market which will spring up as soon as CBDC is introduced." ZH Comment