FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. Ronald Guzmnex-first baseman for the Texas Rangers, is pumping out 97-98 fastballs. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. Crawford debuted young, but due to a team-friendly contract, he did not become a free agent until after his age-28 season, three years older than Heyward. - and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. All he needs to do is stay healthy. His 2012 projections are strong Players who rove around the outfield will qualify at the specific outfield position where he played the most innings provided it was a minimum of 75 percent (475 innings) of total innings at the specific position. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? Hes forever been a work in progress, so maybe hed change his focus on a whim. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. He went second to home on a single. Ground balls are a function of the swings, and consider Xander Bogaerts. Averaging out to a league average player for a total of ten years is a decent feat. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. Heyward remains a tempting upside guy on draft day, but its hard to bid on him too far beyond the price tag of a No. It would be a tragedy if nagging injuries keep him from playing to his full potential. Some call it a sweeper. Heywards defense and lack of power has the potential to confound, but stripping away the defense, we still see an incredibly valuable player with the potential to maintain or even improve his production. Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. Jason Heyward Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 33 Bats/Throws: L/L 6' 5" / 240 OF Quick Look 2022 Games Played: CF: 26 RF: 21 RotoWire News: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Heyward. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . For my ease, I took five-year averages for both WAR and the cost of a win when calculating the total. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. Given his decent wheels, it seems highly unlikely that Heyward will continue to keep company with players who run like they have grand pianos strapped to their backs. Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Jason Heyward Minor & Fall Leagues Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. He hit 27 home runs in 2012, but recorded just 13 of them this year along with an isolated slugging percentage of .146, essentially league average. As expected, their value on defense drops over the next ten years, but a curious thing has happened to their offensive numbers simultaneously. One spring of spring-training data. But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. ESPN, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline . Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. Because, even if he did it from the corner outfield, Heyward was able to emulate the Angelic newcomer in a way. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Jason Heyward - Graphs - - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and that's not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Jason Heyward CF B/T: L/L 6' 5" 240LBS Age: 33 Draft: 2007 Rd: 1, #14, Atlanta Braves Henry County (GA) HS Player Apps Pitch Highlighter Player Similarity Shifts Swing Take Profile illustrator Zone Swing Profile Player Comparison Transaction History Show Random Video Stats Statcast Standard Splits Game Logs MLB Minors Batting Fielding Visuals 2023 Jason Heyward Projections To me, that looks light, and as a huge Heyward fan I am doing my best in putting that out there without bias. Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. The Pirates suggested that Oviedo begin throwing a sinker because his four-seam fastball naturally sinks. He looked like a pitcher.. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. Its not even clear this would be a good thing. Over the last four years, he hasnt had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but theres so clearly the potential for so much more than that too few people have come away satisfied. FanGraphs gives fans, front offices a look at the sport's evolution Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. 1 day ago. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. Good defensive outfielders might simply be a smaller subset of that group overall. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. But Trejo, who came to Spring Training to try to change some minds, had a change in latitude because Gold Glove second baseman Brendan Rodgers sustained a dislocated left shoulder in the previous game. With the injury to Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will see time at shortstop while Jason Heyward and Trayce Thompson will play in center field. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. I am obligated to mention that Mike Trout still has two more seasons to add to his totals. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is. I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. Whatever the name, it might become a problem for them. They were like, Why are you not throwing it with a [sinker] grip and try to get used to it and learn how to throw it?. His average ranking is 7.5. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. FanGraphs currently estimates the cost of a win at around $8 million. Is Jason Heyward Being Properly Valued? | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball Team Offense, New York Yankees | baseballmusings.com Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. by Handedness. The Weakest Positions on National League Contenders Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the Its not that he cant hit the ball out to all fields, but his career-best homer rate is to the pull side. Andrew Heaney is fine with throwing meatballs. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. Games. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. Cubs prospect Hayden Wesneski proving he belongs in the big leagues Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. This production is, quite frankly, incredible. Crossword; Sudoku; Crossword; Sudoku _____ About Us All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. Just like I wanted to see one in there. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Examining The Cubs' Fifth Starter Options from MLBTradeRumors.com at 2/22/2023 4:39:00 AM. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. Heyward, as you know, is left-handed, and here is where he hit baseballs between 2014 2015: I dont know what, if anything, stands out right away. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. Atlanta Braves Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors - Part 276 Dodgers trade rumors: Isiah Kiner-Falefa & Tim Anderson seem unlikely It took the Dodgers six games into their Cactus League schedule, but they finally achieved the ultimate spring . Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency Those are just selective links, but they show Heyward with a right-center approach, and a good amount of batted-ball authority. Jason Heyward - Play Logs - 2022 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts * as the source of default lineups. Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. Jason Heyward as Mike Trout | FanGraphs Baseball The team is confident in . As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. But the power was largely absent. Jason Heyward got more credit for his defense than Mike Trout, by our numbers. It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. UZRs range component agrees. I cant wait to see how this turns out. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. Jason Heyward Powers Down | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball Red Sox employ loophole to MLB shift ban against Joey Gallo All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. Cubs To Release Jason Heyward At End Of Season Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. Jeff Zimmerman found that speedy players, like Heyward, age better than the rest of the baseball population. That Aaron Boone batting order is plugged into the Lineup . Dodgers vs. Angels game thread - True Blue LA Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors fangraphs.com 1d. Mark Kotsay did not do well overall, but he was actually averaging around three wins per season from 26 to 30 before having a negative value as his career wound down. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. The group as a whole averaged nearly four wins per season from age 26 through age 30, which would be a very good result for Jason Heyward. Obviously, Heyward is nowhere near as good as Rodriguez was then, but the argument for blowing the budget to sign him is a similar one. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. Injuries happen and players decline unexpectedly. Heywards production, meanwhile, has been excellent from an early age, similar to multiple Hall of Famers. Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball - playercard - FanGraphs Staff Two - Jason Heyward Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. Jason Heyward - Heat Maps - Pitch% | FanGraphs Baseball Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. Massive crying face emoji. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. Perhaps rightfully so. Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. Tag: Jason Heyward | Community Blog Look at Jason Heyward. This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. I think thats in the ballpark. Im not all that mad about it. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Well know whats up by the beginning of May. Its easy to lose sight of Heywards age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. Heres a bomb to right. by Retrosheet. From 26 to 35, the group got better offensively and the only player who completely busted was Carey Patterson. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Jason Heyward - MLB Trade Rumors Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. Chicago Cubs. Cubs Plan to Release Jason Heyward From Final Year of Deal A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. He went first to home on a double six of nine times, which is about average. Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25.